AsianScientist (Feb. 28, 2020) – The consequences of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection could be dire if Japan continues its suspension of proactive recommendations for HPV vaccination. These were the findings of research published in Lancet Public Health.
Persistent infection with one or more high-risk HPV type can lead to the development of cervical cancer. Fortunately, the HPV vaccine has been available since 2006.
Although free vaccination for girls aged 12-16 years began in Japan in 2010 and included in the national immunization program by April 2013, proactive recommendations for the vaccines were suspended just two months later. This was due to unconfirmed reports of adverse events that were later found to be unrelated to HPV vaccination.
Nonetheless, the damage to vaccine confidence was done—HPV vaccine coverage fell from more than 70 percent to less than one percent, where it remains as of February 2020.
In this study, scientists led by researchers at Hokkaido University, Japan, and Cancer Council New South Wales, Australia, report that the precipitous drop in HPV vaccination rates after suspension of proactive recommendations could result in an additional 25,000 cervical cancer cases and more than 5,000 additional deaths among females born between 1994 to 2007 in Japan. However, swift action by the government could mitigate much of this damage, the researchers found.
The researchers arrived at their conclusions by analyzing Japanese epidemiological data on HPV prevalence, screening coverage and cervical cancer incidence and mortality. They also found that if 70 percent vaccine coverage could be restored in 12-year-olds in 2020, along with 50 percent catch-up coverage in girls 13-20 years old using the second generation of HPV vaccines, 70-80 percent of cervical cancer cases and deaths could be prevented.
“Our research illustrates the significant intermediate and long-term cost of HPV vaccine hesitancy in Japan, but the good news is, it also shows that much of the damage could be mitigated if high-level political support for HPV vaccination was restored and proactive recommendations reinstated,” the researchers concluded.
The article can be found at: Simms et al. (2020) Impact of HPV Vaccine Hesitancy on Cervical Cancer in Japan: A Modelling Study.
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Source: Hokkaido University; Photo: Shutterstock.
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