These Countries Are At Greatest Risk Of Zika, Study Shows

India, China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are expected to be at greatest risk of Zika virus transmission because of their limited health resources.

AsianScientist (Sep. 6, 2016) – A modeling study published in Lancet Infectious Diseases suggests that India, China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are expected to be at greatest risk of Zika virus transmission because of their limited health resources.

At the same time, many other countries across Africa and the Asia Pacific may be vulnerable to Zika virus outbreaks. This is due to multiple factors, including high travel volumes from Zika-affected areas in the Americas; local presence of mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika virus under suitable climatic conditions; large populations; and limited health resources.

In this study, the research team, which included scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University and the University of Toronto, established the ecological niche for Zika virus in the Americas where Zika virus transmission has been reported or where conditions are suitable. The researchers then gathered data on airline ticket sales from all 689 cities with one or more airports in the region travelling to Africa or Asia Pacific over a whole year, from December 2014 to November 2015.

Countries with large volumes of travelers arriving from Zika-affected areas of the Americas that also have large populations at risk include India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Among the assumptions and limitations the study authors noted is that the efficiency of Aedes albopictus to transmit Zika virus is still being studied. The study also did not include other Aedes species such as A. africanus or A. Hensilli, which could prove capable vectors in certain regions.

“The potential for epidemics to occur in parts of Africa and the Asia Pacific region is particularly concerning, given that the vast numbers of people who could be exposed to Zika virus are living in environments where health and human resources to prevent, detect, and respond to epidemics are limited,” said study author Dr. Kamran Khan of St. Michael’s Hospital, Canada.”



The article can be found at: Bogoch et al. (2016) Potential for Zika Virus Introduction and Transmission In Resource-limited Countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific Region: A Modeling Study.

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Source: The Lancet; Photo: Pixabay.
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