Exponential Aircon Use Could Drive Global Warming

Experts predict that the growing demand for air conditioning in developing nations will hike energy consumption to 64 percent by 2040.

AsianScientist (May 26, 2015) – By Daniela López – By 2040, the use of air conditioning in the developing world will spur a 64 percent increase in home energy consumption, generating 23.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on 27 March, rising temperatures and an increase in earnings will lead to greater air conditioning use in developing countries with warm climates.

“Households around the world are becoming richer. This is clearly a good thing. But when people buy more air conditioning units, it is important that the effects of this consumption on energy networks and the environment are not forgotten,” says Associate Professor Lucas Davis, of the Haas School of Business at the University of California and co-author of the study, to SciDev.Net.

The study reports that air conditioning use is due to grow exponentially in developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Thailand in Asia and Brazil and Mexico in Latin America.

Davis and colleagues based their research on data from Mexico, which has highly varied climate as well as household income levels.

“We looked at how air conditioning ownership varies between homes in different parts of Mexico and between different income levels,” Davis explains. “The results were surprising. No one in the colder regions of the country had air conditioning units, but in warm areas air conditioning use is closely related to income.”

Davis predicts that by 2040, virtually all Mexican homes will have air conditioning despite seeing just a two percent increase in household income.

According to the study, the same will happen in developing countries with a varied climate. A minimal increase in income will lead to households using artificial climate control.

But the authors believe that certain measures should be taken to reduce air conditioning use. Firstly, they suggest that people living in areas with extreme temperatures migrate to more temperate zones. Secondly, advances should be made to create more efficient cooling technology.

Mr. David Franco, a researcher at the Aragon Technology Center, National Autonomous University of Mexico, who works on experimental, ecological air conditioning systems, tells SciDev.Net that as people’s income increases, they are likely to purchase products that increase their comfort level, particularly climate control systems, resulting in greater energy consumption.

“Mexico also has its own particular situation especially at the northern border, where cheap but inefficient junk air conditioning units are brought in from the United States. You can find units that are over a decade old and still operate using fluorocarbons,” Franco adds.

The article can be found at: Davis et al. (2015) Contribution Of Air Conditioning Adoption To Future Energy Use Under Global Warming.


Source: SciDev.Net.
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