AsianScientist (Oct. 21, 2016) – China’s recently introduced universal two-child policy is predicted to have a relatively small effect on population growth, with a likely peak of 1.45 billion in 2029, compared to 1.4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy had continued, according to academics writing in The Lancet.
China’s one-child policy was introduced in 1979 to curb population growth and promote economic development. So far, negative effects of the one-child policy include the highly skewed sex ratio, with a predicted excess of 30 million unmarriageable men by 2020 under current trends, and the decline in the working age population which could threaten economic growth.
Amid fears that universally lifting the one-child policy would lead to a baby boom, the Chinese government has introduced gradual changes—for instance, by allowing parents who were only children to have two children. But, by May 2015, only 1.45 million or 13.2 percent of 11 million eligible couples applied for permission to have a second child. In October 2015, the two-child policy was introduced country-wide.
“China’s one-child policy is one of the most controversial policies in history, and debate has raged over the positive and negative effects,” said Professor Therese Hesketh from University College London, UK and Zhejiang University, China. Hesketh co-authored the study with Professor Zeng Yi from Peking University.
The authors said that the two-child policy will likely to lead to a reduction in the number of abortions of unapproved pregnancies; virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children; and a more balanced sex ratio. However, they warn that the effect on the shrinking workforce and rapid population aging may not be felt for two decades. As a result, they say that policies, including increasing the retirement age, strengthening the state pension system, and encouraging three generation living, should be strongly considered.
“Our analysis suggests the change would allow most people to have their desired number of children and help address the skewed sex ratio, but that the effect on population ageing and the shrinking workforce will take longer to be felt,” Hesketh added.
The article can be found at: Zeng & Hesketh (2016) The Effects of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy.
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Source: The Lancet; Photo: Pixabay.
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