Report By Atomic Scientists Underscore Rise Of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program

A startling disclosure in the current issue (July-August 2011) of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists reveals that Pakistan has the world’s fastest growing nuclear stockpile.

AsianScientist (Jul. 28, 2011) – International efforts at global non-proliferation, especially by the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have not been too successful.

What better proof of this than a startling disclosure in the current issue (July-August 2011) of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, saying that Pakistan has the world’s fastest growing nuclear stockpile and that its nuclear posture has entered an important new phase?

The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by former Manhattan Project scientists after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US.

Pakistan’s decision to embark on a massive nuclear weaponization program is in direct response to a similar project across the border in India. The story goes back to the morning of January 20, 1972, when Z. A. Bhutto, then prime minister of Pakistan, called a top level meeting of his senior scientists at Multan and told them in no uncertain terms that Pakistan should have a nuclear weapon.

Work began in 20 laboratories led by A. Q. Khan, director general of the Khan Research Laboratory at Kahuta, and Muneer Ahmed Khan of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.


Operation Chagai-1

The efforts of the scientists finally bore fruit between May 28 and 30, 1998 when Pakistan tested five nuclear devices at Chagai Hills. The exercise, named “Operation Chagai-1”, caused global concern because they followed the Indian nuclear tests on May 11 and 13, 1998 called “Operation Shakti”.

The fear was that both the Asian neighbors could have a nuclear confrontation. Ironically, it was the possession of atomic weapons by both India and Pakistan that prevented a nuclear strike during the Kargil War between May and July 1999.

Though official figures are difficult to obtain, it is speculated that the number of nuclear warheads with Pakistan is currently between 100 and 110, and that the figure for India is 100. Israel has nuclear warheads ranging from 75 to 200.

All three countries are non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It is in this context that the report in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces 2011″, prepared by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris from the Federation of American Scientists, assumes significance.

According to the report, Pakistan is building two new plutonium-producing reactors and a new reprocessing facility with which it will be able to fabricate more nuclear weapons fuel.

The report says that Pakistan is also developing new delivery systems.

“Enhancements to Pakistan’s nuclear forces include a new nuclear-capable medium range ballistic missile, the development of two new nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missiles, and the development of two new nuclear-capable cruise missiles,” it says.

The article estimates that Pakistan has a nuclear weapon stockpile of 90-110 nuclear warheads, an increase from the estimated 70-90 warheads in 2009.

“If today’s rate of expansion continues, we estimate that over the next 10 years, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons stockpile could potentially reach 150-200 warheads – a number comparable to the future British nuclear stockpile,” the report states.

It quotes an earlier projection of the US Defense Intelligence Agency which had stated that by 2020 Pakistan would have 60-80 warheads.

“Pakistan appears to have reached that level in 2006 or 2007, more than a decade ahead of predictions,” it says.

According to the report, with four new delivery systems and two plutonium production reactors under development, the rate of Pakistan’s stockpile growth may even increase over the next 10 years.


P. K. Iyengar: Resources could be diverted elsewhere

Responding to the report, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India, P. K. Iyengar, who played a key role in India’s first nuclear weapon test at Pokhran on May 18, 1974, told Asian Scientist Magazine:

“As long as there are no data that are verifiable, there could be fear mongers in the think tanks that can frighten the public at large. The situation could become as alarming as it became in the cold war days. I am sure the same set of authors could give an even more alarming report on the Indian program,” he said.

“I hope the public in both countries will make the governments aware that increased number of nuclear weapons is unwarranted and wasteful of resources that are required for development of the respective countries,” Iyengar added.

A significant point made by him is that if what is reported is true, it is clear that technologically, Pakistan has made considerable progress in spite of the non-proliferation regime in force.

“All international efforts by applying sanctions have not succeeded,” he told the magazine.

“If India and Pakistan can start a dialogue which will wind up the mad rush to increase the arsenal, it may be useful and more important than other issues at present discussed,” Iyengar said.

 
Lack of public transparency

The report says that the Pakistani government has not defined the number and type of nuclear weapons that its minimum deterrent requires.

“But Pakistan’s pace of nuclear modernization – and its development of several short range delivery systems – indicates that its nuclear posture has entered an important new phase and that a public explanation is overdue,’’ the authors write.

The report says that as of late 2010, the International Panel On Fissile Materials estimated that Pakistan had an inventory of approximately 2600 kg of highly enriched uranium and roughly 100 kg of weapon-grade plutonium, which are enough to produce 160-240 warheads.

“Pakistan may be producing 120-180 kg of highly enriched uranium per year, an amount sufficient for 7-15 warheads,’’ the report adds.

While Pakistan is expanding its nuclear arsenal, the report says that the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden has raised concerns about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Previously, Pakistan has accepted tens of millions of dollars in US aid under a classified program to improve the security of its nuclear weapons.


Chinese support

According to the report, while precise details about Pakistan’s nuclear warheads are not known, the general consensus is that China provided A. Q. Khan, Pakistan’s nuclear scientist, with the blueprint of the uranium implosion device which China detonated on October 27, 1966 at Lop Nor, its main nuclear weapon testing site.

The report has speculated that for atomic missions, Pakistan will use the F-16s A/B and the Mirage Vs.

Apart from aircraft, Pakistan has nuclear-capable missiles too. The three short-range operational nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are the short range Hatf-3 and Hatf-4 and the medium-range Hatf-5. It has three nuclear-capable missiles under development; these are the medium range Hatf 6, Hatf-2 and Hatf-9.

Besides India and Pakistan, the other Asian countries that have nuclear weapon capabilities are China, Japan, North and South Korea.



The full article can be found at: Kristensen and Norris (2011) Pakistan’s nuclear forces, 2011.

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Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Disclaimer: This article does not necessarily reflect the views of AsianScientist or its staff.