Asian Scientist (Jul. 4, 2013) – One out of 10 people on Earth is likely to live in a climate impact hotspot by the end of this century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
Many more are put at risk in a worst-case scenario of the combined impacts on crop yields, water availability, ecosystems, and health, according to a study to be published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study identifies the Amazon region, the Mediterranean and East Africa as regions that might experience severe change in multiple sectors.
The study is based on a comprehensive set of computer simulations modeling both climate change and its impact.
Combining multiple impact and climate models increased the robustness of the predictions but also resulted in a larger spread of projections. According to the researchers, this reflects how different underlying assumptions used in each model may alter the projection significantly.
“We get a broader range in projections of future crop yields, for example, when we recognize assumptions in both the climate and the impact model processes. However, locations with strong agreement among model approaches are more reliable hotspots than those identified by a projection based on just one model with all its underlying assumptions,” says co-author Alex Ruane.
“It allows for a risk management perspective—in the hotspot parts of Africa, for instance, even small temperature rises can lead to additional losses that many small farmers simply cannot afford.”
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Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Photo: cwbuecheler/Flickr.
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