Anti-Doping Efforts In Sports Doomed To Fail

A new study has concluded that sports authorities cannot hope to eliminate doping using current anti-doping systems which are ineffective.

Asian Scientist (Jul. 29, 2013) – A new study has found that the probability of finding doping cheats in sport is so low, and the cost of testing so high, that sports authorities cannot hope to make any major inroads into the problem.

The researchers at the University of Adelaide came to this conclusion after analyzing world-wide data from sports doping tests. They looked at the positive results of doping tests, their sensitivity and frequency across 93 different sports.

“Despite testing, doping in sports now seems to be more widespread than ever,” said Professor Maciej Henneberg, who supervised the research.

“Because anti-doping systems in sport are so unreliable, and the number of tests per year is so low, the likelihood of catching a drug cheat is extremely low.”

According to Professor Henneberg, the average sensitivity of doping tests is about 40%, and the window of opportunity for detecting illicit drugs is narrow.

“If an athlete receives 12 tests a year, the probability of detection with continuous doping is only 33%. But we know that athletes don’t continuously use performance-enhancing drugs; they have increasingly sophisticated techniques to avoid detection,” he said.

Professor Henneberg says that it would not be economically viable to make the testing completely effective: the total cost per year for all athletes to be effectively tested would simply be astronomical.

According to the researchers’ calculations, if sports authorities are to have a 100% chance of detecting drug cheats, each of the world’s athletes would need to be tested up to 50 times a year at a cost of at least $25,000 per athlete.

“For example, the annual cost of testing Germany’s 4000 official athletes would exceed €84 million. When you consider that the annual revenue for the German National Anti-Doping Association was only €4.5 million for the year ending 2010, that’s a massive shortfall,” he says.

The findings suggest that the current system of anti-doping testing is inadequate to eliminate doping.

According to the researchers, it appears that anti-doping policies are in place more for perception, to show that the right thing is being done.

In practice, based on these estimates, the anti-doping system is doomed to fail.

A copy of the paper can be found here: Hermann et al. (2013) Anti-Doping Systems In Sports Are Doomed To Fail: A Probability And Cost Analysis.

——

Source: University of Adelaide; Photo: Richard Masoner (Cyclelicious)/Flickr.
Disclaimer: This article does not necessarily reflect the views of AsianScientist or its staff.

Asian Scientist Magazine is an award-winning science and technology magazine that highlights R&D news stories from Asia to a global audience. The magazine is published by Singapore-headquartered Wildtype Media Group.

Related Stories from Asian Scientist